Findings

The two-year rule

Estimates of a state’s growth agree only loosely with the final figure until about two years after the fiscal year ends, and closely after that.

The two-year rule in full

The league table

The ranking of states by growth at first publication is a weak guide to the ranking that the revised figures later give.

The league table in full

Money

State GDP enters the Finance Commission’s formula and the borrowing ceiling, so revised figures would have sent money to different states and set different ceilings.

All the Finance Commission results