FindingsThe two-year rule
The two-year rule
How long does a state’s growth figure take to settle? We compare each estimate with the latest figure for the same year, and group the estimates by their age. Estimates less than two years old agree only loosely with the latest figure. Older estimates agree closely, and the revisions still to come become much smaller at the same point.
The maturity curve
Agreement with the latest figure, by age of the estimate
Cross-state correlation between estimates of that age and the latest figure
Size of later revisions, by age of the estimate
Root-mean-square revision still to come, percentage points
How large revisions are
Revisions of states’ early estimates, first to latest
Real GSDP growth; revision in percentage points, latest minus first published
First published against latest
Growth as first published and as it stands now, every state and year
Real GSDP growth, per cent; one dot per state and fiscal year
Each dot is one state in one year. A dot on the dashed line was not revised at all. The further a dot lies from the line, the more the first published figure differed from the latest one.
The revision matrix
Revision of growth, by state and fiscal year
Latest minus first published estimate of real GSDP growth, percentage points