FindingsMoney

Money

State GDP enters two fiscal rules. The Finance Commission uses it to measure how far each state’s income per person is from that of the highest-income states, which helps to set each state’s share of central taxes. The central government uses it to set how much each state may borrow. Both rules are applied to figures that are later revised. This page shows what the revised figures would have meant. It is about the timing of data, not about whether either rule is fair.

Three awards

Money that would have gone to different states, by award

Shares recomputed with GSDP revised from the starting vintage to the latest. Select a row to draw it by state below

By state

Change in each state’s devolution under revised GSDP

 

Placebo Commissions

The same formulas run on other editions of the data

₹ crore a year that would have gone to different states

Placebo: another edition as the Commission’s dataActual award5th to 95th percentile of resamplesResample median

Each open dot applies the same formula to a different edition of the data, as if that edition had been the Commission’s. The filled dot is the actual award. Where it sits among the others shows whether the actual figure is typical.

A state’s own GSDP

Change in a state’s devolution when its own GSDP is 1% higher Valid for small changes only

₹ crore a year; 15th Finance Commission’s final award against the 16th

15th Finance Commission, final award16th Finance Commission

True-up

Re-fixing the shares part-way through the 15th Commission’s final award Post-hoc

₹ crore over 2021–26 that would have gone to different states, without and with a true-up

Without a true-upWith a true-upCorrected by the true-up

A change of base year

If states’ GSDP shifted as in a past change of base year: 16th Finance Commission A scenario, not a prediction

₹ crore a year that would go to different states; median and 5th to 95th percentile